Title : Food-energy-water nexus: risks and vulnerability in an era of climate change
Abstract:
The impact of climate change is global. Although climate change has been recognized by many scholars, the influencing factors and consequences of climate change is still unclear. In addition, the growing food imbalance between countries inevitably increases water pressure. Currently, few studies focus on the international water/food resource balance. The intension is to measure the extent to which water resources and food resources are affected by climate change and the relationship between them on regional and international scales. Food, water and energy have always been important research topics. In recent years, in order to propose a comprehensive solution, the international community has tried to use the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (FEW Nexus) for overall thinking. FEW Nexus policy-making must consider regional endowment and global supply chain. At the initial stage, a preliminary assessment of existing methods for performing WEF nexus is carried out; methods that most adequately estimate the state of the system in the research region are selected and used to assessment of the relationship and risk analysis in the system in an era of global climate change.
One of the priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 is to understand the risk, i.e. to address issues of monitoring and forecasting. It is necessary to assess risk trends using integrated scenarios that take into account not only the hazard forecast, but also changes in socio-economic impact, vulnerability and adaptive potential, in particular, for a including FEW Nexus (Sendai Framework, 2015). As the structural analysis of climate-related risks includes an assessment of five components: risk hazard, vulnerability, exposure, interaction of risks and adaptation to them, we suggest the next scheme for risk estimation for FEW Nexus. First, the forecast of temperature and precipitation is given and the probability of extreme fluctuations in (a) temperature and (b) precipitation is estimated. Second, dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena associated with a lack of moisture, such as (c) droughts, resulting in (d) wild fires on agricultural land cause significant damage to plant ecosystems. On the other hand, excess moisture can cause (e) flooding and (f) landslides that degrade agricultural land and damage soil fertility and crop yields. Assessment of (g) water balance of small and medium-sized rivers clarify the quantity and quality of surface and underground water that feeds agricultural land. This affects the commodity structure of agriculture in the region.
